The OoZ Macro Dashboard — Institutional Macro Research
Research DisclaimerThis dashboard is for informational and research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. All data is sourced from public official releases or manually entered from institutional reports. Values marked "—" have not been updated from official sources and must not be treated as current. Regime assessments are data-driven and preliminary until sufficient source data is available. The OoZ Macro Dashboard.
Executive Snapshot
Macro Cycle Regime
Macro Summer
Growth peaking or moderating, inflation rising, liquidity tightening at the margin. Selective risk exposure warranted. Late-cycle dynamics emerging.
Composite Score
74/ 100
Normalized from signal classifications (Supportive +1 / Neutral 0 / Warning −1 / Risk-off −2)
Category Scores
Growth94
Inflation38
Liquidity91
Scores computed from metric signal classifications. Requires ≥40% of category metrics to have assigned signals.
Signal Distribution
Supportive32+1
Neutral100
Warning13−1
Risk-off0−2
Unscored (N/A)2—
55/57 metrics scored · 2 pending source update
Scoring Methodology
Scores are computed from metric signal classifications, not hard-coded values. Each signal is weighted: Supportive +1, Neutral 0, Warning −1, Risk-off −2. Normalized to 0–100 per category.
Analyst Briefing
SourceRV Alpha MIT (30 Apr 2026) + Weekly Alpha Digest (7 Apr 2026)
Report date:April 30, 2026
Regime Assessment
Macro Summer
Core View
Growth up, inflation up, liquidity up
Risk Stance
Risk-on remains intact
⚠ Primary Caveat
Outlook remains contingent on Middle East de-escalation and no renewed oil shock. Regional slowdown risk sits more with EM than DM if energy stress re-escalates.
Dashboard Status Flags
Growth MomentumPositive
Inflation MomentumPositive
LiquidityPositive
Business Cycle PhaseMacro Summer
Risk Asset BackdropSupportive
Geopolitical RiskElevated but improving at margin
Energy Shock RiskStill active
Base CaseBullish, conditional on no fresh oil spike
Bottom-Line View
The world has moved decisively into Macro Summer. Growth momentum is broadening, capex is accelerating, inflation pressures are rebuilding in the correct sequence, and liquidity remains structurally supportive. The base case stays bullish for risk assets, especially cyclicals, materials, energy, and liquidity-sensitive exposures. The only major swing factor that could materially impair this view in the near term is a renewed Middle East escalation that drives another sharp leg higher in oil.
Key Risk: Renewed Middle East escalation driving another sharp leg higher in oil would materially impair the Macro Summer base case.
Section Commentary — click to expand
Growth Momentum
Activity surveys, leading indicators, labor market signals, and global trade proxies.
94
16/16 metrics scored
Activity Surveys & PMI
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citi Economic Surprise Index (US) | 8.70index | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-27 | Supportive | Stale | Citi / Bloomberg / Refinitiv / Trading… | MIT (30 Apr 2026): US growth data continuing to beat expectations. Manufacturing acceleration confirmed by hard capex data. Update exact value from Bloomberg/TradingView. |
| OECD Composite Leading Indicator (US) | 99.85index | Jan 2026 | 2026-03-10 | Supportive | Lagged | OECD Data Explorer | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Global growth remains constructive and above trend. March data shows further rotation into Macro Summer. Retrieve exact value from OECD Data Explorer. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7index | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Supportive | Lagged | Institute for Supply Management | Apr 2026: 52.7 — fourth consecutive month of expansion, matching highest level since Aug 2022. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Manufacturing acceleration intact. Manufacturing acceleration intact. Update exact value from ISM official release. |
| ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 54.1index | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Supportive | Lagged | Institute for Supply Management | Apr 2026: 54.1 (+0.6 pts). Fourth consecutive month of expansion. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Forward demand signal remains constructive. Capex intentions at new cycle high. Capex intentions pushing to new cycle high. |
| ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid | 84.6index | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Warning | Lagged | Institute for Supply Management | Apr 2026: 84.6 — surged from 78.3 in March, highest since April 2022. MIT (30 Apr 2026): ISM Prices Paid remains in the rising camp. Commodity-led upstream inflation in place. Commodity-led upstream inflation in place. Consistent with Macro Summer inflation dynamic. |
| ISM Manufacturing Breadth (Industries Growing) | 12industries | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Supportive | Lagged | Institute for Supply Management | Apr 2026: 12 of 18 industries reporting growth in new orders. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Expansion remains the dominant growth bucket globally. Manufacturing acceleration broadly intact. Manufacturing acceleration broadly intact. |
| S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 54.5index | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Supportive | Lagged | S&P Global PMI | Apr 2026: 54.5 (revised up from flash 54.0) — nearly four-year high. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Corroborating ISM signal. Manufacturing acceleration confirmed by both survey and hard data. |
| ISM + S&P Global PMI Average | 53.6index | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Supportive | Proxy | Computed: (ISM Manufacturing PMI + S&P… | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Both ISM and S&P Global PMI pointing to manufacturing expansion. Composite signal supportive. |
Labor Market
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims (4-wk MA) | 189thousands | Apr 25, 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | Lagged | US Department of Labor / FRED ICSA FRED: ICSA | Week ending Apr 25: 189k — fell 26k, lowest since 1969. Labor market exceptionally tight. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Labor market remains intact. |
| Temporary Help Services YoY | 2,474.5thousands | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-04 | Neutral | Lagged | BLS / FRED TEMPHELPS FRED: TEMPHELPS | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Labor market broadly intact but temp help remains a watch item. Update from FRED TEMPHELPS. |
| Manufacturing Overtime Hours | 3.9hours/week | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-04 | Supportive | Lagged | BLS / FRED AWOTMAN (or Manual GMI over… FRED: AWOTMAN | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Manufacturing acceleration intact. Capex buildout driving overtime demand. Update from FRED AWOTMAN. |
Leading Indicators & Global Proxies
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional Fed Survey Average | 9.6index | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-28 | Supportive | Proxy | NY Empire / Philly Fed / Richmond Fed … | Apr 2026: Avg 9.6 — NY Empire +11.0, Philly +26.7, Richmond +3, Dallas -2.3, Kansas City +10. Broad expansion; Philly at strongest since Jan 2025. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Regional surveys confirm manufacturing acceleration. |
| Conference Board LEI (US) | 97.3index (2016=100) | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-18 | Supportive | Lagged | The Conference Board | Mar 2026: 97.3 — down 0.6 from 97.9 in Feb. Six-month trend still declining but pace of decline slowing. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Business cycle acceleration confirmed by hard capex data. |
| Sweden Manufacturing PMI | 56.3index | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-01 | Supportive | Lagged | Swedbank / Silf | Mar 2026: 56.3 — 9th consecutive month above historical average. Strong global manufacturing cycle confirmed. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Global growth constructive and above trend. |
| Taiwan Exports YoY | +61.8% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-10 | Supportive | Lagged | Taiwan Ministry of Finance | Mar 2026: +61.8% YoY to $80.18bn — record monthly high, first time above $80bn. AI-related semiconductor demand driving exports. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Semiconductor sales at extreme multi-decade highs. |
| Cass Freight Index (Shipments) | 1.007index | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-16 | Supportive | Lagged | Cass Freight Index | Mar 2026: 1.007 — freight shipments holding above 1.0 baseline. Goods economy consistent with above-trend growth. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Capex buildout propagating into physical infrastructure. |
Update cadence: ISM/PMI monthly (first business day). Jobless claims weekly (Thursday). CB LEI monthly. OECD CLI monthly (~1-month lag). Taiwan Exports monthly. Cass Freight monthly.
Inflation
Headline and core price measures, wage dynamics, real-time proxies, and commodity inputs.
38
14/15 metrics scored
Headline & Core Measures
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI Headline YoY | 3.3% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-10 | Warning | Lagged | BLS / FRED CPIAUCSL FRED: CPIAUCSL | Mar 2026: 3.3% YoY — jumped from 2.4% in Feb, highest since May 2024. Energy +12.5% YoY driving headline. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Inflation no longer rolling over. Consistent with Macro Summer. |
| Core CPI YoY (ex Food & Energy) | 2.6% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-10 | Warning | Lagged | BLS / FRED CPILFESL FRED: CPILFESL | Mar 2026: 2.6% YoY (up from 2.5% in Feb). Core inflation re-accelerating modestly. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Sticky core consistent with Macro Summer phase. |
| Core PCE YoY | 3.2% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Warning | Lagged | BEA / FRED PCEPILFE FRED: PCEPILFE | Mar 2026: 3.2% YoY — up from 3.0% in Feb, highest since early 2024. Well above Fed 2% target. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Inflation pressures rising in line with the Macro Summer framework. |
| PPI Final Demand YoY | 4.0% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-11 | Warning | Lagged | BLS / FRED PPIFID FRED: PPIFID | Mar 2026: 4.0% YoY (up from 3.4% in Feb). PPI re-accelerating, leading CPI higher. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Upstream inflation feeding through the pipeline as expected. |
| WTI Crude Oil | 99.89$/bbl | Apr 27, 2026 | 2026-04-29 | Warning | Lagged | FRED DCOILWTICO / Market provider FRED: DCOILWTICO | Apr 27 2026: $99.89/bbl — near $100, elevated. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Energy shock risk still active. Middle East geopolitical risk elevated. Oil supply system has recovered ~2/3 of lost Strait of Hormuz flows but renewed spike would threaten growth base case. |
CPI Sub-Components
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Goods CPI YoY | 1.2% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-10 | Warning | Lagged | BLS CPI Components | Mar 2026: 1.2% YoY (up from 1.0% in Feb). Goods inflation re-accelerating from near-zero. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Commodity-led upstream inflation in place. Consistent with Macro Summer. |
| Shelter CPI YoY | 3.0% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-10 | Neutral | Lagged | BLS CPI Components | Mar 2026: 3.0% YoY. Largest CPI component (~33%). Sticky but decelerating slowly. MIT (30 Apr 2026): No immediate break signal; lags real-time rent by 12-18 months. |
| Core Services ex Shelter CPI YoY | 3.4% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-10 | Warning | Lagged | BLS CPI Components | Mar 2026: 3.4% YoY (up from 3.3% in Feb). "Supercore" re-accelerating — Fed's most watched metric. Wage-driven services pressure consistent with Macro Summer. |
| New Tenant Rent Index | — | — | — | — | Proxy | Cleveland Fed / Proxy | Real-time rent proxy. Leads BLS Shelter CPI by ~12-18 months. Clearly marked as proxy. |
Wage Dynamics & Forward Indicators
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.5% | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-04 | Warning | Lagged | BLS / FRED CES0500000003 FRED: CES0500000003 | Mar 2026: 3.5% YoY (down from 3.8% in Feb). Wage growth moderating but still above pre-pandemic trend. Nominal AHE: $37.38/hr. Key input for services inflation. |
| Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker | 3.9% | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Warning | Lagged | Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker | Apr 2026: 3.9% — median wage growth for job-stayers. Elevated, consistent with sticky services inflation. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Wage-driven services pressure in Macro Summer. |
| NFIB Compensation Plans (% raising) | 18% net | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-14 | Warning | Lagged | NFIB Small Business Survey | Mar 2026: Net 18% plan to raise compensation (down 4 pts from Feb, lowest since Jul 2024). Wage pressure moderating but still elevated. Leads AHE by ~3-6 months. |
| Richmond Fed Wages Paid Index | 3index | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-28 | Neutral | Lagged | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey | Apr 2026: Composite index +3 (20-month high). Manufacturing expanding. Wages paid component elevated but not accelerating further. |
Alternative Measures & Commodity Inputs
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truflation Real-Time CPI | 28.25% cumulative (Jan 2020) | May 2026 | 2026-05-02 | Warning | Proxy | Truflation | May 2026: 28.25% cumulative inflation since Jan 2020. Directional proxy only — not comparable to BLS YoY CPI. Elevated cumulative price level consistent with Macro Summer inflation backdrop. |
| Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index | 99.89$/bbl (WTI proxy) | Apr 27, 2026 | 2026-04-29 | Warning | Proxy | WTI Crude Oil proxy (FRED DCOILWTICO) … FRED: DCOILWTICO | Proxy: WTI Crude $99.89/bbl used as commodity inflation proxy (Bloomberg BCOM requires terminal). WTI near $100 — elevated commodity pressure consistent with Macro Summer. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Commodity-led upstream inflation in place. |
Update cadence: CPI/PPI monthly (BLS release schedule). Core PCE monthly (BEA, ~1-month lag). AHE with monthly jobs report. Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker monthly. NFIB monthly. New Tenant Rent monthly (Cleveland Fed). Truflation daily.
Liquidity
Central bank policy, money supply, Fed net liquidity mechanics, FX, and risk asset proxies.
91
25/26 metrics scored
FX & Market Rates
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY US Dollar Index | 98.21index | 2026-05-01 | 2026-05-02 | Supportive | Lagged | ICE / TradingView / Market provider | May 1 2026: 98.21 — DXY near multi-year lows, supportive of global USD liquidity. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Liquidity backdrop supportive for equities and crypto. |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | 4.38% | 2026-05-01 | 2026-05-02 | Neutral | Lagged | US Treasury / FRED DGS10 FRED: DGS10 | Apr 30 2026: 4.40% — off recent highs, financial conditions easing at margin. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Liquidity backdrop broadly supportive. |
| USD/JPY | 157.03rate | 2026-05-01 | 2026-05-02 | Supportive | Lagged | FRED / Market provider FRED: DEXJPUS | Apr 24 2026: 159.35 — elevated, supporting risk-on carry trade dynamics. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Risk-on remains intact. |
| USD/CHF | 0.7815rate | 2026-05-01 | 2026-05-02 | Neutral | Lagged | FRED / Market provider FRED: DEXSZUS | Apr 24 2026: 0.7848 — USD weak vs CHF, some safe-haven demand in CHF but not acute risk-off. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Risk-on remains intact overall. |
Central Bank Policy Rates
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate (Target Upper Bound) | 3.75% | May 1, 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Neutral | Lagged | Federal Reserve / FRED DFEDTARU FRED: DFEDTARU | May 1 2026: 3.75% — Fed has been cutting from 5.50% peak. Easing cycle underway but pace slowing given re-accelerating inflation. Watch May FOMC meeting. |
| ECB Deposit Facility Rate | 2.00% | Jun 2025 | 2025-06-11 | Supportive | Lagged | European Central Bank | Jun 2025: 2.00% — ECB in easing cycle. Supportive of European liquidity conditions. Update after next ECB Governing Council meeting. |
| Bank of England Base Rate | 3.75% | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | Lagged | Bank of England | Apr 2026: 3.75% — BoE easing cycle underway. Supportive of UK liquidity conditions. |
| Bank of Japan Policy Rate | 0.75% | Dec 2025 | 2025-12-19 | Neutral | Lagged | Bank of Japan | Dec 2025: 0.75% — BoJ hiking slowly. Yen carry trade still intact at current levels but watch for further BoJ hikes that could trigger carry unwind. |
| PBoC 1Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) | 3.00% | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-20 | Supportive | Lagged | People's Bank of China | Apr 2026: 3.00% — PBoC maintaining accommodative stance. Supportive of Chinese credit conditions. Korea exports to China booming per MIT (30 Apr 2026). |
Money Supply
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US M2 Money Supply YoY | 22,686USD bn | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-23 | Supportive | Lagged | Federal Reserve / FRED M2SL FRED: M2SL | Mar 2026: $22,686bn. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Structural US liquidity trend remains upward. US and ex-US liquidity rising together again. |
| Global M2 (Major Country Composite) | — | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | Proxy | Defined major-country composite / Manu… | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Total liquidity at fresh all-time highs. US and ex-US liquidity rising together. Liquidity backdrop supportive for equities and crypto on medium-term basis. |
Fed Net Liquidity Mechanics
Formula: Fed Net Liquidity = WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPONTSYD(Fed Balance Sheet − Treasury General Account − Reverse Repo Facility)
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Net Liquidity | 5,717USD bn | Apr 29, 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | Proxy | Computed: FRED WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPON… FRED: WALCL | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Recent dip framed as TGA/tax-season noise, not a trend break. Structural US liquidity trend remains upward. Fed Treasury holdings rising again — functional QE / reserve-management-driven support. Update from FRED WALCL-WTREGEN-RRPONTSYD. |
| Fed Net Liquidity 2M Annualized Change | — | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Neutral | Proxy | Computed from Fed Net Liquidity formula | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Short-term dip due to TGA/tax-season noise. Not a trend break. Structural uptrend intact on 6M basis. |
| Fed Net Liquidity 6M Annualized Change | — | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | Proxy | Computed from Fed Net Liquidity formula | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Structural US liquidity trend remains upward on 6M basis. Treasury issuance plus bank absorption effectively monetizing fiscal expansion. |
| Treasury General Account (TGA) | 981.9USD bn | Apr 29, 2026 | 2026-04-29 | Neutral | Lagged | US Treasury / FRED WTREGEN FRED: WTREGEN | Apr 29 2026: $981.9bn — elevated TGA from tax season. MIT (30 Apr 2026): TGA/tax-season noise causing short-term Fed Net Liquidity dip. Not a structural break. |
| Fed Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility | 0.6USD bn | May 1, 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Supportive | Lagged | NY Fed / FRED RRPONTSYD FRED: RRPONTSYD | May 1 2026: $0.6bn — effectively zero. RRP buffer exhausted. TGA is now the primary short-term liquidity driver. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Structural liquidity uptrend intact. |
| US Bank Securities Holdings (Shadow QE Proxy) | 4,756USD bn | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-18 | Supportive | Proxy | Federal Reserve H.8 / FRED FRED: USGSEC | Mar 2026: $4,756bn. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Treasury issuance plus bank absorption effectively monetizing fiscal expansion. Functional QE / reserve-management-driven liquidity support in place. |
China & Global Liquidity
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBoC Balance Sheet | — | — | — | — | Stale | PBoC / CEIC / Manual | PBoC total assets. Expanding balance sheet = Chinese monetary stimulus. |
| China Credit Impulse (TSF YoY) | — | Mar 2026 | 2026-04-11 | Supportive | Proxy | PBoC / NBS / TSF Manual / Proxy | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Korea exports to China booming. China credit impulse supportive of global growth. US and ex-US liquidity rising together. Update from FRED CHNTOTALSOCFIN. |
Risk Asset & Volatility Proxies
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVE Index (Bond Volatility) | 72.07index | Apr 30, 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Neutral | Lagged | ICE BofA MOVE / FRED BAMLMOVE / Provider FRED: BAMLMOVE | Apr 30 2026: 72.07 — well below stress levels (>150). Bond market calm, financial conditions supportive. MIT (30 Apr 2026): No acute rates stress signal. |
| Bitcoin (BTC) Price | 78,297USD | May 2, 2026 | 2026-05-02 | Supportive | Live | CoinMarketCap / CoinGecko / Exchange API | May 2 2026: $78,297. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Liquidity backdrop supportive for crypto on medium-term basis. Risk-on remains intact. |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 27,710index | May 1, 2026 | 2026-05-01 | Supportive | Live | Nasdaq / Provider / FRED proxy FRED: NASDAQ100 | May 1 2026: 27,710. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Risk-on backdrop intact. Hyperscaler capex at $600bn+ (36% YoY). AI compute driving second-order equity upside. Liquidity supportive. |
⬡ Proprietary MIT/GMI Indicators — Manual Override Required
| Metric | Value | Data Date | Released | Signal | Status | Source | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIT/GMI Financial Conditions Index⬡ GMI | — | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | MIT-GMI | Manual MIT-GMI override — Real Vision … | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Financial conditions broadly supportive. Risk-on remains intact. Liquidity backdrop supportive for equities and crypto. PROPRIETARY — enter exact index value from Real Vision/MIT report. |
| GMI Central Bank Net Liquidity⬡ GMI | — | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | MIT-GMI | Manual MIT-GMI override — Real Vision … | MIT (30 Apr 2026): US and ex-US liquidity rising together. Total liquidity at fresh ATH. Fed Treasury holdings rising again. PROPRIETARY — enter exact index value from Real Vision/MIT report. |
| GMI Total Liquidity Index⬡ GMI | — | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | MIT-GMI | Manual MIT-GMI override — Real Vision … | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Total liquidity remains at fresh all-time highs. PROPRIETARY — enter exact index value from Real Vision/MIT report. |
| GMI Daily Liquidity Composite⬡ GMI | — | Apr 2026 | 2026-04-30 | Supportive | MIT-GMI | Manual MIT-GMI override — Real Vision … | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Daily liquidity composite supportive. TGA noise creating short-term dip but structural uptrend intact. PROPRIETARY — enter exact index value from Real Vision/MIT report. |
⬡ Data Integrity Note — Proprietary GMI/MIT Indicators
Metrics marked MIT-GMI (GMI Financial Conditions Index, GMI Central Bank Net Liquidity, GMI Total Liquidity Index, GMI Daily Liquidity Composite) are proprietary indicators from Real Vision / MIT macro research. These must be manually entered from official Real Vision or MIT reports and must not be presented as public live data. Do not infer, interpolate, or synthesize these values.
Update cadence: FRED data weekly (balance sheet, TGA, RRP). Policy rates: update after each central bank meeting. M2 monthly. BTC/NDX/DXY: daily market data. GMI/MIT indicators: update from Real Vision/MIT reports only.
Bottom-Line Cycle Assessment
Current Regime Assessment
Macro Summer
74/ 100 composite
Growth Momentum
94
↑14=1↓1
16/16 metrics scored
Inflation
38
=2↓12
14/15 metrics scored
Liquidity
91
↑18=7
25/26 metrics scored
Regime Interpretation Matrix
| Regime | Score Range | Growth | Inflation | Liquidity | Positioning Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Macro Spring | 75–100 | Accelerating | Contained / Falling | Expanding | Risk assets broadly supported. Historically strongest regime for equities and digital assets. Overweight risk. |
Macro Summer← current | 50–74 | Peaking / Moderating | Rising | Tightening at margin | Late-cycle dynamics. Selective risk exposure. Monitor inflation and liquidity deterioration. Reduce duration. |
Macro Fall | 25–49 | Decelerating | Sticky / Elevated | Contracting | Defensive positioning appropriate. Credit stress and volatility elevated. Reduce risk, increase cash/gold. |
Macro Winter | 0–24 | Contraction | Deflation or Stagflation | Severely constrained | Risk-off regime. Capital preservation priority. Long USD, short risk. Await policy pivot signal. |
Scoring Methodology — Full Transparency
Signal Weights
Supportive= +1
Neutral= 0
Warning= −1
Risk-off= −2
Normalization Formula
score = (Σ weights − min) / (max − min) × 100
min = n × (−2), max = n × (+1)
where n = number of scored metrics
Minimum 40% of category metrics must have assigned signals. If insufficient, score shows "pending source update."
Important: Regime classification is data-driven, not editorially assigned. Regime will not be declared until sufficient source data is available. All signals must be assigned by a human analyst from official source data — the dashboard does not auto-classify signals.
Data Sources / Source Audit
Status Legend
Live
Data sourced from a live or near-real-time public API or feed.
Lagged
Official government/institutional release with typical 1–6 week publication lag.
MIT-GMI
Proprietary indicator from Real Vision/MIT. Must be manually entered from official reports. Not public live data.
Proxy
Computed or derived metric using a formula or substitute series. Not a direct official release.
N/A
Data source is not accessible or metric is not currently tracked.
Stale
Value has not been updated within the expected refresh window. Requires manual update from official source.
⬡ Data Integrity Note — Proprietary GMI/MIT Indicators
The following indicators are proprietary to Real Vision / MIT macro research (GMI — Global Macro Investor framework): MIT/GMI Financial Conditions Index, GMI Central Bank Net Liquidity, GMI Total Liquidity Index, and GMI Daily Liquidity Composite.
These metrics must be manually entered by an authorized analyst from official Real Vision or MIT macro reports. They must not be presented as public live data, inferred, interpolated, or synthesized from other sources.
All GMI/MIT fields are marked with the ⬡ GMI indicator and MIT-GMI status badge throughout this dashboard.
Data Update Instructions
Single update point: All metric values are stored in client/src/data/macroData.ts— the single source of truth for The OoZ Macro Dashboard. Update the value, dataDate, releaseDate, and signal fields for each metric. The dashboard scores and regime will recompute automatically.
As-of timestamp: Update the asOfTimestamp constant at the top of the data file whenever you refresh data.
Stale detection: Any metric with a releaseDate older than 30 days from the as-of timestamp is automatically flagged as stale and visually dimmed.
Signal assignment: Signals (Supportive / Neutral / Warning / Risk-off) must be assigned by a human analyst. The dashboard does not auto-classify signals. Set signal: "N/A" for unscored metrics.
FRED data: Metrics with FRED codes can be retrieved from fred.stlouisfed.org or via the FRED API. See FRED codes in the source registry below.
Total Metrics
57
Require Update
2
FRED-Linked
21
GMI Proprietary
4
Full Source Registry (57/57 metrics)
| Category | Metric | Status | Signal | FRED Code | Official Source | Link | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | Citi Economic Surprise Index (US) | Stale | Supportive | — | Citi / Bloomberg / Refinitiv / TradingView | ↗ | MIT (30 Apr 2026): US growth data continuing to beat expectations. Manufacturing acceleration confirmed by hard capex data. Update exact value from Bloomberg/TradingView. |
| Growth | OECD Composite Leading Indicator (US) | Lagged | Supportive | — | OECD Data Explorer | ↗ | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Global growth remains constructive and above trend. March data shows further rotation into Macro Summer. Retrieve exact value from OECD Data Explorer. |
| Growth | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Lagged | Supportive | — | Institute for Supply Management | ↗ | Apr 2026: 52.7 — fourth consecutive month of expansion, matching highest level since Aug 2022. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Manufacturing acceleration intact. Manufacturing acceleration intact. Update exact value from ISM official release. |
| Growth | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Lagged | Supportive | — | Institute for Supply Management | ↗ | Apr 2026: 54.1 (+0.6 pts). Fourth consecutive month of expansion. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Forward demand signal remains constructive. Capex intentions at new cycle high. Capex intentions pushing to new cycle high. |
| Growth | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid | Lagged | Warning | — | Institute for Supply Management | ↗ | Apr 2026: 84.6 — surged from 78.3 in March, highest since April 2022. MIT (30 Apr 2026): ISM Prices Paid remains in the rising camp. Commodity-led upstream inflation in place. Commodity-led upstream inflation in place. Consistent with Macro Summer inflation dynamic. |
| Growth | ISM Manufacturing Breadth (Industries Growing) | Lagged | Supportive | — | Institute for Supply Management | ↗ | Apr 2026: 12 of 18 industries reporting growth in new orders. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Expansion remains the dominant growth bucket globally. Manufacturing acceleration broadly intact. Manufacturing acceleration broadly intact. |
| Growth | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | Lagged | Supportive | — | S&P Global PMI | ↗ | Apr 2026: 54.5 (revised up from flash 54.0) — nearly four-year high. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Corroborating ISM signal. Manufacturing acceleration confirmed by both survey and hard data. |
| Growth | ISM + S&P Global PMI Average | Proxy | Supportive | — | Computed: (ISM Manufacturing PMI + S&P Global PMI) / 2 | — | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Both ISM and S&P Global PMI pointing to manufacturing expansion. Composite signal supportive. |
| Growth | Initial Jobless Claims (4-wk MA) | Lagged | Supportive | ICSA | US Department of Labor / FRED ICSA | ↗ | Week ending Apr 25: 189k — fell 26k, lowest since 1969. Labor market exceptionally tight. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Labor market remains intact. |
| Growth | Temporary Help Services YoY | Lagged | Neutral | TEMPHELPS | BLS / FRED TEMPHELPS | ↗ | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Labor market broadly intact but temp help remains a watch item. Update from FRED TEMPHELPS. |
| Growth | Manufacturing Overtime Hours | Lagged | Supportive | AWOTMAN | BLS / FRED AWOTMAN (or Manual GMI override if proprietary) | ↗ | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Manufacturing acceleration intact. Capex buildout driving overtime demand. Update from FRED AWOTMAN. |
| Growth | Regional Fed Survey Average | Proxy | Supportive | — | NY Empire / Philly Fed / Richmond Fed / Dallas Fed / Kansas City Fed | ↗ | Apr 2026: Avg 9.6 — NY Empire +11.0, Philly +26.7, Richmond +3, Dallas -2.3, Kansas City +10. Broad expansion; Philly at strongest since Jan 2025. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Regional surveys confirm manufacturing acceleration. |
| Growth | Conference Board LEI (US) | Lagged | Supportive | — | The Conference Board | ↗ | Mar 2026: 97.3 — down 0.6 from 97.9 in Feb. Six-month trend still declining but pace of decline slowing. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Business cycle acceleration confirmed by hard capex data. |
| Growth | Sweden Manufacturing PMI | Lagged | Supportive | — | Swedbank / Silf | ↗ | Mar 2026: 56.3 — 9th consecutive month above historical average. Strong global manufacturing cycle confirmed. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Global growth constructive and above trend. |
| Growth | Taiwan Exports YoY | Lagged | Supportive | — | Taiwan Ministry of Finance | ↗ | Mar 2026: +61.8% YoY to $80.18bn — record monthly high, first time above $80bn. AI-related semiconductor demand driving exports. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Semiconductor sales at extreme multi-decade highs. |
| Growth | Cass Freight Index (Shipments) | Lagged | Supportive | — | Cass Freight Index | ↗ | Mar 2026: 1.007 — freight shipments holding above 1.0 baseline. Goods economy consistent with above-trend growth. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Capex buildout propagating into physical infrastructure. |
| Inflation | CPI Headline YoY | Lagged | Warning | CPIAUCSL | BLS / FRED CPIAUCSL | ↗ | Mar 2026: 3.3% YoY — jumped from 2.4% in Feb, highest since May 2024. Energy +12.5% YoY driving headline. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Inflation no longer rolling over. Consistent with Macro Summer. |
| Inflation | Core CPI YoY (ex Food & Energy) | Lagged | Warning | CPILFESL | BLS / FRED CPILFESL | ↗ | Mar 2026: 2.6% YoY (up from 2.5% in Feb). Core inflation re-accelerating modestly. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Sticky core consistent with Macro Summer phase. |
| Inflation | Core PCE YoY | Lagged | Warning | PCEPILFE | BEA / FRED PCEPILFE | ↗ | Mar 2026: 3.2% YoY — up from 3.0% in Feb, highest since early 2024. Well above Fed 2% target. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Inflation pressures rising in line with the Macro Summer framework. |
| Inflation | PPI Final Demand YoY | Lagged | Warning | PPIFID | BLS / FRED PPIFID | ↗ | Mar 2026: 4.0% YoY (up from 3.4% in Feb). PPI re-accelerating, leading CPI higher. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Upstream inflation feeding through the pipeline as expected. |
| Inflation | WTI Crude Oil | Lagged | Warning | DCOILWTICO | FRED DCOILWTICO / Market provider | ↗ | Apr 27 2026: $99.89/bbl — near $100, elevated. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Energy shock risk still active. Middle East geopolitical risk elevated. Oil supply system has recovered ~2/3 of lost Strait of Hormuz flows but renewed spike would threaten growth base case. |
| Inflation | Core Goods CPI YoY | Lagged | Warning | — | BLS CPI Components | ↗ | Mar 2026: 1.2% YoY (up from 1.0% in Feb). Goods inflation re-accelerating from near-zero. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Commodity-led upstream inflation in place. Consistent with Macro Summer. |
| Inflation | Shelter CPI YoY | Lagged | Neutral | — | BLS CPI Components | ↗ | Mar 2026: 3.0% YoY. Largest CPI component (~33%). Sticky but decelerating slowly. MIT (30 Apr 2026): No immediate break signal; lags real-time rent by 12-18 months. |
| Inflation | Core Services ex Shelter CPI YoY | Lagged | Warning | — | BLS CPI Components | ↗ | Mar 2026: 3.4% YoY (up from 3.3% in Feb). "Supercore" re-accelerating — Fed's most watched metric. Wage-driven services pressure consistent with Macro Summer. |
| Inflation | New Tenant Rent Index | Proxy | — | — | Cleveland Fed / Proxy | ↗ | Real-time rent proxy. Leads BLS Shelter CPI by ~12-18 months. Clearly marked as proxy. |
| Inflation | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Lagged | Warning | CES0500000003 | BLS / FRED CES0500000003 | ↗ | Mar 2026: 3.5% YoY (down from 3.8% in Feb). Wage growth moderating but still above pre-pandemic trend. Nominal AHE: $37.38/hr. Key input for services inflation. |
| Inflation | Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker | Lagged | Warning | — | Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker | ↗ | Apr 2026: 3.9% — median wage growth for job-stayers. Elevated, consistent with sticky services inflation. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Wage-driven services pressure in Macro Summer. |
| Inflation | NFIB Compensation Plans (% raising) | Lagged | Warning | — | NFIB Small Business Survey | ↗ | Mar 2026: Net 18% plan to raise compensation (down 4 pts from Feb, lowest since Jul 2024). Wage pressure moderating but still elevated. Leads AHE by ~3-6 months. |
| Inflation | Richmond Fed Wages Paid Index | Lagged | Neutral | — | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey | ↗ | Apr 2026: Composite index +3 (20-month high). Manufacturing expanding. Wages paid component elevated but not accelerating further. |
| Inflation | Truflation Real-Time CPI | Proxy | Warning | — | Truflation | ↗ | May 2026: 28.25% cumulative inflation since Jan 2020. Directional proxy only — not comparable to BLS YoY CPI. Elevated cumulative price level consistent with Macro Summer inflation backdrop. |
| Inflation | Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index | Proxy | Warning | DCOILWTICO | WTI Crude Oil proxy (FRED DCOILWTICO) — Bloomberg BCOM unavailable without terminal | ↗ | Proxy: WTI Crude $99.89/bbl used as commodity inflation proxy (Bloomberg BCOM requires terminal). WTI near $100 — elevated commodity pressure consistent with Macro Summer. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Commodity-led upstream inflation in place. |
| Liquidity | DXY US Dollar Index | Lagged | Supportive | — | ICE / TradingView / Market provider | ↗ | May 1 2026: 98.21 — DXY near multi-year lows, supportive of global USD liquidity. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Liquidity backdrop supportive for equities and crypto. |
| Liquidity | US 10Y Treasury Yield | Lagged | Neutral | DGS10 | US Treasury / FRED DGS10 | ↗ | Apr 30 2026: 4.40% — off recent highs, financial conditions easing at margin. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Liquidity backdrop broadly supportive. |
| Liquidity | USD/JPY | Lagged | Supportive | DEXJPUS | FRED / Market provider | ↗ | Apr 24 2026: 159.35 — elevated, supporting risk-on carry trade dynamics. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Risk-on remains intact. |
| Liquidity | USD/CHF | Lagged | Neutral | DEXSZUS | FRED / Market provider | ↗ | Apr 24 2026: 0.7848 — USD weak vs CHF, some safe-haven demand in CHF but not acute risk-off. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Risk-on remains intact overall. |
| Liquidity | Fed Funds Rate (Target Upper Bound) | Lagged | Neutral | DFEDTARU | Federal Reserve / FRED DFEDTARU | ↗ | May 1 2026: 3.75% — Fed has been cutting from 5.50% peak. Easing cycle underway but pace slowing given re-accelerating inflation. Watch May FOMC meeting. |
| Liquidity | ECB Deposit Facility Rate | Lagged | Supportive | — | European Central Bank | ↗ | Jun 2025: 2.00% — ECB in easing cycle. Supportive of European liquidity conditions. Update after next ECB Governing Council meeting. |
| Liquidity | Bank of England Base Rate | Lagged | Supportive | — | Bank of England | ↗ | Apr 2026: 3.75% — BoE easing cycle underway. Supportive of UK liquidity conditions. |
| Liquidity | Bank of Japan Policy Rate | Lagged | Neutral | — | Bank of Japan | ↗ | Dec 2025: 0.75% — BoJ hiking slowly. Yen carry trade still intact at current levels but watch for further BoJ hikes that could trigger carry unwind. |
| Liquidity | PBoC 1Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) | Lagged | Supportive | — | People's Bank of China | ↗ | Apr 2026: 3.00% — PBoC maintaining accommodative stance. Supportive of Chinese credit conditions. Korea exports to China booming per MIT (30 Apr 2026). |
| Liquidity | US M2 Money Supply YoY | Lagged | Supportive | M2SL | Federal Reserve / FRED M2SL | ↗ | Mar 2026: $22,686bn. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Structural US liquidity trend remains upward. US and ex-US liquidity rising together again. |
| Liquidity | Global M2 (Major Country Composite) | Proxy | Supportive | — | Defined major-country composite / Manual model input | — | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Total liquidity at fresh all-time highs. US and ex-US liquidity rising together. Liquidity backdrop supportive for equities and crypto on medium-term basis. |
| Liquidity | Fed Net Liquidity | Proxy | Supportive | WALCL | Computed: FRED WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPONTSYD | ↗ | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Recent dip framed as TGA/tax-season noise, not a trend break. Structural US liquidity trend remains upward. Fed Treasury holdings rising again — functional QE / reserve-management-driven support. Update from FRED WALCL-WTREGEN-RRPONTSYD. |
| Liquidity | Fed Net Liquidity 2M Annualized Change | Proxy | Neutral | — | Computed from Fed Net Liquidity formula | — | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Short-term dip due to TGA/tax-season noise. Not a trend break. Structural uptrend intact on 6M basis. |
| Liquidity | Fed Net Liquidity 6M Annualized Change | Proxy | Supportive | — | Computed from Fed Net Liquidity formula | — | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Structural US liquidity trend remains upward on 6M basis. Treasury issuance plus bank absorption effectively monetizing fiscal expansion. |
| Liquidity | Treasury General Account (TGA) | Lagged | Neutral | WTREGEN | US Treasury / FRED WTREGEN | ↗ | Apr 29 2026: $981.9bn — elevated TGA from tax season. MIT (30 Apr 2026): TGA/tax-season noise causing short-term Fed Net Liquidity dip. Not a structural break. |
| Liquidity | Fed Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility | Lagged | Supportive | RRPONTSYD | NY Fed / FRED RRPONTSYD | ↗ | May 1 2026: $0.6bn — effectively zero. RRP buffer exhausted. TGA is now the primary short-term liquidity driver. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Structural liquidity uptrend intact. |
| Liquidity | US Bank Securities Holdings (Shadow QE Proxy) | Proxy | Supportive | USGSEC | Federal Reserve H.8 / FRED | ↗ | Mar 2026: $4,756bn. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Treasury issuance plus bank absorption effectively monetizing fiscal expansion. Functional QE / reserve-management-driven liquidity support in place. |
| Liquidity | PBoC Balance Sheet | Stale | — | — | PBoC / CEIC / Manual | ↗ | PBoC total assets. Expanding balance sheet = Chinese monetary stimulus. |
| Liquidity | China Credit Impulse (TSF YoY) | Proxy | Supportive | — | PBoC / NBS / TSF Manual / Proxy | ↗ | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Korea exports to China booming. China credit impulse supportive of global growth. US and ex-US liquidity rising together. Update from FRED CHNTOTALSOCFIN. |
| Liquidity | MOVE Index (Bond Volatility) | Lagged | Neutral | BAMLMOVE | ICE BofA MOVE / FRED BAMLMOVE / Provider | ↗ | Apr 30 2026: 72.07 — well below stress levels (>150). Bond market calm, financial conditions supportive. MIT (30 Apr 2026): No acute rates stress signal. |
| Liquidity | Bitcoin (BTC) Price | Live | Supportive | — | CoinMarketCap / CoinGecko / Exchange API | ↗ | May 2 2026: $78,297. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Liquidity backdrop supportive for crypto on medium-term basis. Risk-on remains intact. |
| Liquidity | NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | Live | Supportive | NASDAQ100 | Nasdaq / Provider / FRED proxy | ↗ | May 1 2026: 27,710. MIT (30 Apr 2026): Risk-on backdrop intact. Hyperscaler capex at $600bn+ (36% YoY). AI compute driving second-order equity upside. Liquidity supportive. |
| Liquidity | MIT/GMI Financial Conditions Index⬡ GMI | MIT-GMI | Supportive | — | Manual MIT-GMI override — Real Vision / MIT Reports | — | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Financial conditions broadly supportive. Risk-on remains intact. Liquidity backdrop supportive for equities and crypto. PROPRIETARY — enter exact index value from Real Vision/MIT report. |
| Liquidity | GMI Central Bank Net Liquidity⬡ GMI | MIT-GMI | Supportive | — | Manual MIT-GMI override — Real Vision / MIT Reports | — | MIT (30 Apr 2026): US and ex-US liquidity rising together. Total liquidity at fresh ATH. Fed Treasury holdings rising again. PROPRIETARY — enter exact index value from Real Vision/MIT report. |
| Liquidity | GMI Total Liquidity Index⬡ GMI | MIT-GMI | Supportive | — | Manual MIT-GMI override — Real Vision / MIT Reports | — | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Total liquidity remains at fresh all-time highs. PROPRIETARY — enter exact index value from Real Vision/MIT report. |
| Liquidity | GMI Daily Liquidity Composite⬡ GMI | MIT-GMI | Supportive | — | Manual MIT-GMI override — Real Vision / MIT Reports | — | MIT (30 Apr 2026): Daily liquidity composite supportive. TGA noise creating short-term dip but structural uptrend intact. PROPRIETARY — enter exact index value from Real Vision/MIT report. |
The OoZ — Orakle of Zakynthos
Where Science Meets Magic · Institutional macro research dashboard · All source data must be verified from official releases before use.